luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Eagles, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Eagles 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:55 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 53 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 27
Philadelphia Eagles 24

September 22, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −4

Luck index +36 Lions lucky · −36 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 DET 37 PHI 14
  2. 2 DET 19 PHI 3
  3. 3 DET 26 PHI 14
  4. 4 DET 33 PHI 26
  5. 5 DET 25 PHI 20
  6. 6 DET 12 PHI 10
  7. 7 DET 14 PHI 17
  8. 8 DET 17 PHI 24
  9. 9 DET 20 PHI 30
  10. 10 DET 16 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 64% of them, Eagles 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+17.5%
Lions by 9–1619.7%
Lions by 1–826.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Eagles by 1–818.0%
Eagles by 9–1610.0%
Eagles by 17+5.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 3, without the luck Lions by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Prater, 46 yds blocked · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 9 for 61 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +1.2 pts
Q1 12:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yards +7% PHI +2.1 pts
Q2 14:17 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Akeem Spence), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q2 12:09 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DET +2.1 pts
Q2 10:09 False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 6:00 Encroachment on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +1.2 pts
Q3 13:04 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q3 0:59 False Start on the Lions (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 14:53 Illegal Formation on the Lions (J.D. McKissic), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% DET +1.0 pts
Q4 8:28 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 12 yards +5% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 7:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jarrad Davis), 5 yards +3% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 1:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 10 yards +6% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 0:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the play +53% DET +2.8 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:28 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +19% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q3 6:19 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:25 The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:55 The Lions converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% DET DET: Punt
5 Q4 2:25 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% DET PHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:53 M. Prater had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ beforeIllegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 139 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +22% PHI DET: End of game
7 Q4 0:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 61 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +53% DET DET: End of game
8 Q4 0:49 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 72% · Eagles 28%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
0.5 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 64% · Eagles 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Lions · Eagles

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