luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Packers, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Broncos 27–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:50 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 13 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Denver Broncos 16
Green Bay Packers 27

September 22, 2019 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −7

Luck index +43 Packers lucky · −43 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 27 GB 7
  2. 2 DEN 22 GB 10
  3. 3 DEN 20 GB 13
  4. 4 DEN 13 GB 10
  5. 5 DEN 21 GB 23
  6. 6 DEN 14 GB 19
  7. 7 DEN 17 GB 26
  8. 8 DEN 10 GB 22
  9. 9 DEN 5 GB 21
  10. 10 DEN 3 GB 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 43% of them, Packers 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+6.9%
Broncos by 9–1613.8%
Broncos by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation2.9%
Packers by 1–826.1%
Packers by 9–1617.0%
Packers by 17+13.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Packers by 11, without the luck Packers by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Crosby, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Crosby, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 3 for 27 yards, Packers 7 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:38 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q1 8:02 Fair Catch Interference on the Packers, 15 yards +2% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 13:38 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 13:16 Face Mask on the Broncos (Josey Jewell), 15 yards +4% GB +1.8 pts
Q2 6:47 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Emmanuel Sanders), 10 yards +4% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 0:24 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 8 yards +5% DEN +0.1 pts
Q3 5:59 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Jimmy Graham), 10 yards +3% DEN +1.1 pts
Q3 4:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 2 yards +1% GB +0.2 pts
Q3 0:16 Illegal Formation on the Packers (Josh Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 8:23 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.7 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:33 The Packers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% GB GB: Punt
2 Q2 11:27 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% DEN GB: Field goal
3 Q2 8:42 The Broncos converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q2 4:08 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% GB DEN: Field goal
5 Q2 2:27 The Broncos fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB DEN: Punt
6 Q3 13:50 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% GB DEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:05 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:06 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% DEN DEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jason Spriggs (GB T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 2% · Packers 98%

Final margin
Packers by 11
Luck in points
0.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 43% · Packers 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Broncos · Packers

More from Week 3 2019