luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 23, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Washington, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat Washington 31–15, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Bears were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:53 left): Washington were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 37 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 31
Washington Redskins 15

September 23, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Bears −5

Luck index +45 Bears lucky · −45 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 6, Washington win 4.

  1. 1 CHI 30 WAS 9
  2. 2 CHI 24 WAS 10
  3. 3 CHI 19 WAS 8
  4. 4 CHI 21 WAS 13
  5. 5 CHI 21 WAS 17
  6. 6 CHI 5 WAS 3
  7. 7 CHI 10 WAS 12
  8. 8 CHI 10 WAS 15
  9. 9 CHI 23 WAS 35
  10. 10 CHI 7 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 55% of them, Washington 45%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+10.5%
Bears by 9–1616.6%
Bears by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.3%
Washington by 1–820.9%
Washington by 9–1614.2%
Washington by 17+8.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 16, without the luck Bears by 10.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 44 yds missed · 82% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 9 for 59 yards, Washington 9 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CHI +0.3 pts
Q1 6:50 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Duke Shelley), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 6:13 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +4% WAS +1.3 pts
Q1 1:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Prince Amukamara), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% WAS +3.5 pts
Q1 0:42 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Danny Trevathan), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +2% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 12:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 12:35 False Start on the Bears (Anthony Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 10:54 Defensive Offside on Washington (Ryan Kerrigan), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 9:31 Illegal Contact on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 4 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 7:00 Illegal Shift on Washington (Steven Sims), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% CHI +2.8 pts
Q2 5:52 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Josh Norman), 7 yards +2% CHI +1.7 pts
Q2 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 0:11 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Khalil Mack), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 5:58 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Landon Collins), 15 yards +1% CHI +1.8 pts
Q3 1:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Aaron Lynch), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.3 pts
Q4 1:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 4 yards 0% WAS +0.1 pts
Q4 0:18 False Start on Washington (Vernon Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.2 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Jonathan Allen), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 7 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +5% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 11:06 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% WAS CHI: Punt
3 Q1 9:53 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedReturn touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams +37% CHI WAS: Punt
4 Q1 1:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Prince Amukamara), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 145 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +11% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q2 14:10 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% CHI WAS: Missed field goal
6 Q2 13:26 D. Hopkins missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +7% CHI WAS: Turnover
7 Q2 7:00 Illegal Shift on Washington (Steven Sims), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 22 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:08 Washington were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedWashington fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CHI WAS: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Reed (WAS TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 96% · Washington 4%

Final margin
Bears by 16
Luck in points
5.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 55% · Washington 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Bears · Washington

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