luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Colts, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Falcons 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 24
Indianapolis Colts 27

September 22, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +31 Colts lucky · −31 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 34 IND 20
  2. 2 ATL 27 IND 20
  3. 3 ATL 13 IND 10
  4. 4 ATL 26 IND 28
  5. 5 ATL 23 IND 27
  6. 6 ATL 7 IND 13
  7. 7 ATL 13 IND 22
  8. 8 ATL 17 IND 30
  9. 9 ATL 14 IND 31
  10. 10 ATL 16 IND 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 31% of them, Colts 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.9%
Falcons by 9–167.2%
Falcons by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Colts by 1–830.3%
Colts by 9–1622.5%
Colts by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Falcons by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Bryant, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 16 for 128 yards, Colts 4 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Jack Crawford), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.5 pts
Q1 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +7% IND +1.8 pts
Q1 4:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Ricardo Allen), 15 yards +4% IND +1.6 pts
Q1 3:54 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Parris Campbell), 10 yards +2% ATL +1.2 pts
Q2 8:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Jack Crawford), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +1.0 pts
Q2 7:00 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (De'Vondre Campbell), 0 yards 0% IND 0.0 pts
Q2 1:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Keanu Neal), 13 yards +3% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 0:35 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 0:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Falcons (Keanu Neal), 5 yards +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 9:01 Illegal Blindside Block on the Falcons (Blidi Wreh-Wilson), 15 yards +5% IND +1.3 pts
Q3 5:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 10 yards +6% IND +1.8 pts
Q4 13:51 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 12:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 10:39 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Damontae Kazee), 5 yards +8% IND +1.6 pts
Q4 8:35 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% IND +1.2 pts
Q4 6:53 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% IND +1.4 pts
Q4 5:32 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +1% IND +1.1 pts
Q4 4:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Quincy Wilson), 15 yards +6% ATL +2.2 pts
Q4 4:52 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 9 yards +4% ATL +1.2 pts
Q4 4:43 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:36 A. Vinatieri made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +7% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 98 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:52 The Falcons converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:39 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Damontae Kazee), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 94 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +8% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Quincy Wilson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 40 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% IND IND: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jabaal Sheard (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 83% · Colts 17%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
8.0 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 31% · Colts 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Falcons · Colts

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