luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Buccaneers, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Giants stole one. They beat the Buccaneers 32–31, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 68 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 64% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): M. Gay missed 34-yard field goal, worth 69 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

September 22, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −5

Luck index +83 Giants very lucky · −83 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 40 TB 24
  2. 2 NYG 10 TB 6
  3. 3 NYG 24 TB 27
  4. 4 NYG 16 TB 23
  5. 5 NYG 21 TB 31
  6. 6 NYG 14 TB 26
  7. 7 NYG 17 TB 32
  8. 8 NYG 20 TB 39
  9. 9 NYG 27 TB 50
  10. 10 NYG 13 TB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 17% of them, Buccaneers 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+2.2%
Giants by 9–165.1%
Giants by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Buccaneers by 1–818.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.8%
Buccaneers by 17+42.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 1, without the luck Buccaneers by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Gay, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 52 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Gay, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 34 yds missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 59 yards, Buccaneers 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:27 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 11:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 10 yards +5% NYG +1.3 pts
Q2 6:38 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 5:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Jabrill Peppers), 29 yards +8% TB +2.4 pts
Q2 2:15 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jabrill Peppers), 5 yards +1% NYG 0.0 pts
Q2 0:46 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (Justin Watson), 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 9:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants, 10 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 6:34 False Start on the Giants (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 2:35 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q4 0:13 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYG +0.5 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:54 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:58 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 8:27 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NYG TB: Field goal
4 Q4 11:24 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% NYG TB: Field goal
5 Q4 10:36 The Giants fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TB NYG: Punt
6 Q4 1:26 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% TB NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:21 The Giants converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +19% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:04 The game turned hereM. Gay missed 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +69% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 27% · Buccaneers 73%

Final margin
Giants by 1
Luck in points
4.3 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 17% · Buccaneers 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Giants · Buccaneers

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