Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Seahawks, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Seahawks 33–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:05 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 28 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 33 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Saints lucky · −31 Seahawks
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 7, Seahawks win 3.
- 1 NO 33 SEA 7
- 2 NO 38 SEA 20
- 3 NO 24 SEA 10
- 4 NO 27 SEA 16
- 5 NO 24 SEA 17
- 6 NO 34 SEA 30
- 7 NO 26 SEA 24
- 8 NO 21 SEA 23
- 9 NO 3 SEA 10
- 10 NO 14 SEA 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 69% of them, Seahawks 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 21.4% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 25.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Saints 11 for 70 yards, Seahawks 7 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 10 yards | +2% NO +1.3 pts |
| Q1 12:30 | False Start on the Seahawks (Ben Burr-Kirven), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.2 pts |
| Q1 7:31 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q1 7:02 | Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% SEA +2.0 pts |
| Q1 0:57 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +1% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:30 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:16 | False Start on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:57 | Chop Block on the Saints (Alvin Kamara), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SEA +2.8 pts |
| Q3 11:14 | Illegal Formation on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NO +2.6 pts |
| Q3 7:44 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% NO +2.0 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks, 15 yards | +1% NO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:06 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (P.J. Williams), 5 yards | +1% SEA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 2:47 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Josh Hill), 6 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SEA +2.7 pts |
| Q4 13:35 | Defensive Offside on the Saints (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:27 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (K.J. Wright), 3 yards | 0% NO +2.0 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Defensive Offside on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% SEA +4.0 pts |
| Q4 0:12 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Vonn Bell), 5 yards | 0% SEA +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:05 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (David Onyemata), 4 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SEA +3.6 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:19 | Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams | +12% NO | NO: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:53 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:02 | Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +6% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:36 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:05 | The Seahawks fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams | +28% NO | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 5:26 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% SEA | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 3:21 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% NO | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 2:37 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +10% NO | SEA: End of half |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Drew Brees (NO QB), out, replaced by t.bridgewater · 1.5 pts
- Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Alex Anzalone (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 91% · Seahawks 9%
- Final margin
- Saints by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 11.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 69% · Seahawks 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · 
Saints · 
Seahawks
More from Week 3 2019
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Falcons at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 33–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Bengals at Bills BUF 21–17 · replay 72% for the winner
- Broncos at Packers GB 27–16 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles DET 27–24 · replay 64% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cowboys DAL 31–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 30–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Vikings MIN 34–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals CAR 38–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Buccaneers NYG 32–31 · replay 17% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 27–20 · replay 44% for the winner
- Steelers at 49ers SF 24–20 · replay 87% for the winner
- Rams at Browns LA 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Bears at Washington CHI 31–15 · replay 55% for the winner