luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Chargers, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chargers 27–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 46 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:30 left): Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 36 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 27
Los Angeles Chargers 20

September 22, 2019 · StubHub Center · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +56 Texans lucky · −56 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 4, Chargers win 6.

  1. 1 HOU 41 LAC 20
  2. 2 HOU 44 LAC 33
  3. 3 HOU 16 LAC 10
  4. 4 HOU 16 LAC 14
  5. 5 HOU 17 LAC 19
  6. 6 HOU 19 LAC 24
  7. 7 HOU 17 LAC 26
  8. 8 HOU 23 LAC 36
  9. 9 HOU 14 LAC 31
  10. 10 HOU 21 LAC 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 44% of them, Chargers 56%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+8.6%
Texans by 9–1612.9%
Texans by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation3.5%
Chargers by 1–824.8%
Chargers by 9–1616.0%
Chargers by 17+15.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 7, without the luck Texans by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Long, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
  • T. Long, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 6 for 65 yards, Chargers 7 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:45 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q1 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LAC +2.1 pts
Q1 3:31 Illegal Formation on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 12:15 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +2.7 pts
Q2 9:24 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 14 yards +4% HOU +1.7 pts
Q2 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 22 yards +4% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 1:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 0:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 8 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 14:20 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 3:09 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 15 yards +7% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 0:50 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +36% HOU +2.6 pts
Q4 0:17 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans, 15 yards +1% LAC +1.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:19 The Texans fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% LAC HOU: Punt
2 Q3 5:27 The Chargers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% LAC LAC: Turnover
3 Q3 3:52 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% HOU LAC: Punt
4 Q3 2:07 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +16% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:59 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% HOU LAC: Field goal
6 Q4 2:07 The Chargers converted 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:05 The Chargers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +36% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Michael Davis (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Hunter Henry (LAC TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Adrian Phillips (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 83% · Chargers 17%

Final margin
Texans by 7
Luck in points
2.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 44% · Chargers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Texans · Chargers

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