luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · September 19, 2019–September 23

Week 3 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Buccaneers 32–31 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 32–31 @ Buccaneers 36% 17% Lucky
Saints 33–27 @ Seahawks 36% 69% Deserved
Lions 27–24 @ Eagles 38% 64% Deserved
Texans 27–20 @ Chargers 41% 44% Coin flip
Panthers 38–20 @ Cardinals 43% 89% Deserved
Jaguars 20–7 vs Titans 46% 91% Deserved

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 32–31 @ Buccaneers 17% +83
2 Texans W 27–20 @ Chargers 44% +56
3 Chiefs W 33–28 vs Ravens 47% +53
4 Bears W 31–15 @ Washington 55% +45
5 Packers W 27–16 vs Broncos 57% +43
6 Lions W 27–24 @ Eagles 64% +36
7 Colts W 27–24 vs Falcons 69% +31
8 Saints W 33–27 @ Seahawks 69% +31
9 Bills W 21–17 vs Bengals 72% +28
10 Vikings W 34–14 vs Raiders 81% +19
11 Rams W 20–13 @ Browns 83% +17
12 49ers W 24–20 vs Steelers 87% +13
13 Panthers W 38–20 @ Cardinals 89% +11
14 Jaguars W 20–7 vs Titans 91% +9
15 Patriots W 30–14 vs Jets 99% +1
16 Cowboys W 31–6 vs Dolphins 100% 0
17 Dolphins L 6–31 @ Cowboys 0% 0
18 Jets L 14–30 @ Patriots 1% −1
19 Titans L 7–20 @ Jaguars 9% −9
20 Cardinals L 20–38 vs Panthers 11% −11
21 Steelers L 20–24 @ 49ers 13% −13
22 Browns L 13–20 vs Rams 17% −17
23 Raiders L 14–34 @ Vikings 19% −19
24 Bengals L 17–21 @ Bills 28% −28
25 Seahawks L 27–33 vs Saints 31% −31
26 Falcons L 24–27 @ Colts 31% −31
27 Eagles L 24–27 vs Lions 36% −36
28 Broncos L 16–27 @ Packers 43% −43
29 Washington L 15–31 vs Bears 45% −45
30 Ravens L 28–33 @ Chiefs 53% −53
31 Chargers L 20–27 vs Texans 56% −56
32 Buccaneers L 31–32 vs Giants 83% −83