luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Bills, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Bengals 21–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 39 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
Buffalo Bills 21

September 22, 2019 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +28 Bills lucky · −28 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 CIN 37 BUF 17
  2. 2 CIN 37 BUF 28
  3. 3 CIN 30 BUF 27
  4. 4 CIN 14 BUF 17
  5. 5 CIN 20 BUF 26
  6. 6 CIN 27 BUF 36
  7. 7 CIN 16 BUF 27
  8. 8 CIN 12 BUF 27
  9. 9 CIN 27 BUF 47
  10. 10 CIN 13 BUF 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 28% of them, Bills 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+4.7%
Bengals by 9–168.2%
Bengals by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation2.7%
Bills by 1–823.2%
Bills by 9–1620.7%
Bills by 17+26.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 4, without the luck Bills by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 62 yds missed · 49% expected
  • R. Bullock, 43 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 8 for 54 yards, Bills 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:35 False Start on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q1 7:19 Intentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 22 yards +6% CIN +2.1 pts
Q1 7:03 Illegal Formation on the Bengals (Joe Mixon), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 3:45 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Andrew Brown), 11 yards +5% BUF +1.4 pts
Q1 3:27 Face Mask on the Bengals (Clayton Fejedelem), 2 yards +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q1 3:03 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Auden Tate), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q1 3:03 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% BUF 0.0 pts
Q1 1:06 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 13:44 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% CIN +1.1 pts
Q2 1:23 Encroachment on the Bengals (Andrew Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:02 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.1 pts
Q3 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Maurice Alexander), 8 yards 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 12:34 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% CIN +2.0 pts
Q4 1:39 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Kevin Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q4 0:20 Disqualification on the Bengals, 15 yards +14% BUF +1.4 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:28 The Bills converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +12% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q1 7:19 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 136 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +19% CIN BUF: Punt
3 Q1 3:03 The Bills’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffensive Holding on the Bengals (Auden Tate), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 34 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 1 yardPre-snap flags +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q4 12:34 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 0 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 53 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:28 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q4 4:58 R. Bullock made 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +11% CIN CIN: Turnover
7 Q4 1:54 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:20 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedDisqualification on the Bengals, 15 yardsJudgment calls +39% BUF CIN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Singletary (BUF RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • B.W. Webb (CIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Glasgow (CIN DT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 36% · Bills 64%

Final margin
Bills by 4
Luck in points
2.4 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 28% · Bills 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Bengals · Bills

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