luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Cowboys, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Dolphins 31–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 95% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:36 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 6
Dallas Cowboys 31

September 22, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −22

Luck index 0 Cowboys about even · 0 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 23 DAL 31
  2. 2 MIA 9 DAL 24
  3. 3 MIA 12 DAL 31
  4. 4 MIA 17 DAL 40
  5. 5 MIA 12 DAL 39
  6. 6 MIA 7 DAL 37
  7. 7 MIA 0 DAL 33
  8. 8 MIA 10 DAL 47
  9. 9 MIA 16 DAL 57
  10. 10 MIA 3 DAL 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 0% of them, Cowboys 100%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.0%
Dolphins by 9–160.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Cowboys by 1–80.3%
Cowboys by 9–161.5%
Cowboys by 17+98.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Cowboys by 25, without the luck Cowboys by 32.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Maher, 55 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 35 yards, Cowboys 8 for 100 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:16 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIA +1.8 pts
Q1 0:53 Offside on Free Kick on the Dolphins (Ken Webster), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q2 4:01 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% MIA +2.6 pts
Q2 0:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 26 yards +13% MIA +2.3 pts
Q2 0:36 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards +4% MIA +0.9 pts
Q3 10:49 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 8:32 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIA +3.5 pts
Q4 13:18 Roughing the Kicker on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +2.4 pts
Q4 12:56 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 12:47 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Byron Jones), 14 yards +1% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 8:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 15 yards 0% MIA +1.4 pts
Q4 4:04 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Taco Charlton), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 4:00 Disqualification on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.7 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:36 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +14% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
2 Q1 13:25 J. Sanders missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +9% DAL MIA: Punt
3 Q1 7:44 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:49 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 4:01 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% MIA MIA: Turnover
6 Q2 0:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 132 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +13% MIA MIA: Turnover
7 Q2 0:31 The Dolphins fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DAL MIA: Punt
8 Q3 8:32 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Xavier Woods (DAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrone Crawford (DAL DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 25
Luck in points
7.3 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 32.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 0% · Cowboys 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Dolphins · Cowboys

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