2019 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2019: game by game
The Titans went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.1.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Browns | W 43–13 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | L 17–19 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 3 | @ Jaguars | L 7–20 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 4 | @ Falcons | W 24–10 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 5 | vs Bills | L 7–14 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 6 | @ Broncos | L 0–16 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 7 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 20% | +80 |
| Week 8 | vs Buccaneers | W 27–23 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 9 | @ Panthers | L 20–30 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 10 | vs Chiefs | W 35–32 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 12 | vs Jaguars | W 42–20 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 13 | @ Colts | W 31–17 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 14 | @ Raiders | W 42–21 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 15 | vs Texans | L 21–24 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 16 | vs Saints | L 28–38 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | W 35–14 | 87% | +13 |
| Wild Card | @ Patriots | W 20–13 | 39% | +61 |
| Divisional round | @ Ravens | W 28–12 | 59% | +41 |
| AFC Championship | @ Chiefs | L 24–35 | 17% | −17 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.37 | +16.0 |
| Judgment calls | +0.35 | +10.3 |
| Kicks | +0.33 | −17.7 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.20 | +6.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.28 | +4.0 |