luckadjusted

AFC Championship 2019 · January 19, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Chiefs, AFC Championship 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Titans 35–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:13 left): the Titans converted 4th & 2, worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 24
Kansas City Chiefs 35

January 19, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −7.5

Luck index +17 Chiefs about even · −17 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Chiefs win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 35 KC 24
  2. 2 TEN 26 KC 24
  3. 3 TEN 27 KC 29
  4. 4 TEN 30 KC 35
  5. 5 TEN 20 KC 28
  6. 6 TEN 27 KC 38
  7. 7 TEN 3 KC 17
  8. 8 TEN 3 KC 20
  9. 9 TEN 10 KC 31
  10. 10 TEN 23 KC 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 17% of them, Chiefs 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.1%
Titans by 9–164.0%
Titans by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation0.9%
Chiefs by 1–824.0%
Chiefs by 9–1624.1%
Chiefs by 17+34.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 11, without the luck Chiefs by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 8 for 85 yards, Chiefs 9 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +1.2 pts
Q1 8:35 Encroachment on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 0:57 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 5 yards +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q1 0:02 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 12:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +1.0 pts
Q2 10:45 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% KC +1.9 pts
Q2 9:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 11 yards, wiping out the play +3% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 5:53 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 5 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Darwin Thompson), 10 yards +4% TEN +0.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Chiefs (Dorian O'Daniel), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 9:52 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.2 pts
Q3 8:15 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 9 yards +4% KC +1.5 pts
Q4 3:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 41 yards +1% KC +3.1 pts
Q4 3:51 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.4 pts
Q4 2:15 Delay of Game on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 2:08 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards 0% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.5 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:39 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% KC TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 8:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 689 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242Encroachment on the Chiefs, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:13 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:58 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:45 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:37 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:27 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:14 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Juan Thornhill (KC FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 28% · Chiefs 72%

Final margin
Chiefs by 11
Luck in points
6.6 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 17% · Chiefs 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2019 games · Titans · Chiefs

More from Conference championships 2019