luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Raiders, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Raiders 42–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:10 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 23 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Tennessee Titans 42
Oakland Raiders 21

December 8, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +12 Titans about even · −12 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 41 OAK 7
  2. 2 TEN 44 OAK 20
  3. 3 TEN 34 OAK 14
  4. 4 TEN 48 OAK 31
  5. 5 TEN 34 OAK 20
  6. 6 TEN 38 OAK 27
  7. 7 TEN 27 OAK 20
  8. 8 TEN 35 OAK 30
  9. 9 TEN 26 OAK 24
  10. 10 TEN 13 OAK 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 88% of them, Raiders 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+45.0%
Titans by 9–1623.1%
Titans by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.0%
Raiders by 1–87.4%
Raiders by 9–162.7%
Raiders by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Titans by 21, without the luck Titans by 23.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 4 for 21 yards, Raiders 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OAK +0.6 pts
Q1 0:15 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% OAK +3.9 pts
Q2 0:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 1 yard +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 0:24 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards +1% TEN 0.0 pts
Q3 14:12 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Logan Ryan), 5 yards +2% OAK +0.9 pts
Q4 3:00 Encroachment on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:10 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +23% OAK TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:36 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% OAK OAK: Punt
3 Q2 10:50 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% OAK OAK: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:58 The Titans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:04 R. Succop missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +20% OAK TEN: Punt
7 Q3 11:18 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +11% TEN OAK: Punt
8 Q4 13:25 The Raiders fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +10% TEN OAK: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trent Brown (OAK T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (OAK WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 100% · Raiders 0%

Final margin
Titans by 21
Luck in points
2.9 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 23.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 88% · Raiders 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Titans · Raiders

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