luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · December 5, 2019–December 9

Week 14 2019: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Cowboys 31–24 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Broncos 38–24 @ Texans 28% 48% Coin flip
Bears 31–24 vs Cowboys 41% 13% Lucky
Chiefs 23–16 @ Patriots 41% 47% Coin flip
49ers 48–46 @ Saints 47% 67% Deserved

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 31–24 vs Cowboys 13% +87
2 Steelers W 23–17 @ Cardinals 41% +59
3 Chiefs W 23–16 @ Patriots 47% +53
4 Broncos W 38–24 @ Texans 48% +52
5 Jets W 22–21 vs Dolphins 51% +49
6 Browns W 27–19 vs Bengals 63% +37
7 49ers W 48–46 @ Saints 67% +33
8 Rams W 28–12 vs Seahawks 87% +13
9 Vikings W 20–7 vs Lions 87% +13
10 Eagles W 23–17 vs Giants 88% +12
11 Titans W 42–21 @ Raiders 88% +12
12 Packers W 20–15 vs Washington 90% +10
13 Falcons W 40–20 vs Panthers 92% +8
14 Buccaneers W 38–35 vs Colts 94% +6
15 Chargers W 45–10 @ Jaguars 96% +4
16 Ravens W 24–17 @ Bills 97% +3
17 Bills L 17–24 vs Ravens 3% −3
18 Jaguars L 10–45 vs Chargers 4% −4
19 Colts L 35–38 @ Buccaneers 6% −6
20 Panthers L 20–40 @ Falcons 8% −8
21 Washington L 15–20 @ Packers 10% −10
22 Raiders L 21–42 vs Titans 12% −12
23 Giants L 17–23 @ Eagles 12% −12
24 Lions L 7–20 @ Vikings 13% −13
25 Seahawks L 12–28 @ Rams 13% −13
26 Saints L 46–48 vs 49ers 33% −33
27 Bengals L 19–27 @ Browns 37% −37
28 Dolphins L 21–22 @ Jets 49% −49
29 Texans L 24–38 vs Broncos 52% −52
30 Patriots L 16–23 vs Chiefs 53% −53
31 Cardinals L 17–23 vs Steelers 59% −59
32 Cowboys L 24–31 @ Bears 87% −87