luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 9, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Eagles, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 13, worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 17
Philadelphia Eagles 23

December 9, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −9.5

Luck index +12 Eagles about even · −12 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 16 PHI 10
  2. 2 NYG 23 PHI 26
  3. 3 NYG 31 PHI 37
  4. 4 NYG 17 PHI 26
  5. 5 NYG 20 PHI 31
  6. 6 NYG 14 PHI 27
  7. 7 NYG 17 PHI 33
  8. 8 NYG 33 PHI 53
  9. 9 NYG 7 PHI 33
  10. 10 NYG 0 PHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 12% of them, Eagles 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.1%
Giants by 9–163.1%
Giants by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Eagles by 1–816.4%
Eagles by 9–1620.7%
Eagles by 17+49.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Giants: the final margin was Eagles by 6, without the luck Eagles by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Rosas, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 7 for 54 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:52 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q1 7:01 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q1 0:31 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 12:02 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% NYG +2.9 pts
Q2 4:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 4 yards +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 9:38 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards +3% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 8:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Devante Downs), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 5:40 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 3:18 False Start on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 8:22 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 10 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 6:43 Illegal Contact on the Giants, 5 yards +4% PHI +1.5 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:51 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYG PHI: Punt
2 Q1 0:02 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 The Giants converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:02 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 0:35 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:54 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:56 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill (PHI LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Eagles 98%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 12% · Eagles 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Giants · Eagles

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