luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Patriots, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Patriots 23–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:26 left): the Patriots converted 4th & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 23
New England Patriots 16

December 8, 2019 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +53 Chiefs lucky · −53 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 5, Patriots win 5.

  1. 1 KC 52 NE 24
  2. 2 KC 24 NE 9
  3. 3 KC 33 NE 23
  4. 4 KC 16 NE 10
  5. 5 KC 28 NE 26
  6. 6 KC 12 NE 15
  7. 7 KC 16 NE 21
  8. 8 KC 16 NE 25
  9. 9 KC 24 NE 38
  10. 10 KC 9 NE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 47% of them, Patriots 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+11.7%
Chiefs by 9–1614.0%
Chiefs by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation4.9%
Patriots by 1–822.5%
Patriots by 9–1614.8%
Patriots by 17+11.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Chiefs by 7, without the luck Chiefs by 11.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 48 yds made · 70% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds blocked · 83% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 83% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 136 yards, Patriots 5 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 8 yards +5% NE +1.7 pts
Q1 12:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 31 yards +11% NE +3.0 pts
Q1 9:07 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NE +2.8 pts
Q1 0:35 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +1.5 pts
Q2 13:37 Illegal Blindside Block on the Chiefs, 15 yards +6% NE +1.5 pts
Q2 12:53 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Lawrence Guy), 5 yards +3% KC +1.0 pts
Q2 5:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 5 yards +1% KC +0.8 pts
Q2 2:58 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Armani Watts), 13 yards +3% NE +1.3 pts
Q2 2:07 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Shilique Calhoun), 5 yards +1% KC +0.1 pts
Q2 0:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Dorian O'Daniel), 15 yards +3% NE +1.2 pts
Q3 7:14 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 5 yards +1% NE +1.0 pts
Q4 13:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kendall Fuller), 24 yards +11% NE +2.7 pts
Q4 11:19 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 6:02 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.5 pts
Q4 4:17 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.7 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 31 yardsJudgment calls +11% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:16 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +12% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:37 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:15 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedThe Chiefs fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NE KC: Punt
5 Q4 13:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kendall Fuller), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 320 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +11% NE NE: Field goal
6 Q4 12:26 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% KC NE: Field goal
7 Q4 3:26 The Patriots converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +17% NE NE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:11 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +15% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ted Karras (NE C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 92% · Patriots 8%

Final margin
Chiefs by 7
Luck in points
4.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 47% · Patriots 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Chiefs · Patriots

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