luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Buccaneers, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Colts 38–35, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Colts.

An off day for the Colts: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:47 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 60 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 35
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

December 8, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +6 Buccaneers about even · −6 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 IND 31 TB 24
  2. 2 IND 31 TB 34
  3. 3 IND 27 TB 34
  4. 4 IND 13 TB 23
  5. 5 IND 31 TB 44
  6. 6 IND 17 TB 34
  7. 7 IND 10 TB 30
  8. 8 IND 13 TB 36
  9. 9 IND 20 TB 48
  10. 10 IND 6 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Colts

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

35 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.14 worse by 0.07
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.34 +0.10 worse by 0.25
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.34 +0.17 better by 0.18
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.13 better by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 6% of them, Buccaneers 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.3%
Colts by 9–161.5%
Colts by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation0.7%
Buccaneers by 1–810.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.1%
Buccaneers by 17+61.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 3 for 35 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 104 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:26 Illegal Blindside Block on the Colts (Justin Houston), 15 yards +4% TB +1.4 pts
Q1 9:26 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q2 14:42 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 3:41 Intentional Grounding on the Buccaneers (Jameis Winston), 16 yards +6% IND +1.1 pts
Q2 0:38 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 13 yards +5% IND +1.5 pts
Q3 12:09 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Anthony Walker), 10 yards +3% TB +1.1 pts
Q3 9:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 15 yards +3% IND +1.8 pts
Q3 7:59 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards +3% TB +1.5 pts
Q4 12:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 45 yards +11% IND +2.9 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:54 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +16% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:28 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +16% TB TB: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 2:47 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +60% IND TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:29 The Colts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:45 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% TB IND: Missed field goal
6 Q4 5:03 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% IND TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:38 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +15% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:56 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +21% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alex Cappa (TB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chester Rogers (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Vinatieri (IND K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 37% · Buccaneers 63%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 6% · Buccaneers 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Colts · Buccaneers

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