luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Browns, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 27–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:46 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 46 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 19
Cleveland Browns 27

December 8, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6.5

Luck index +37 Browns lucky · −37 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Browns win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 20 CLE 3
  2. 2 CIN 25 CLE 14
  3. 3 CIN 23 CLE 17
  4. 4 CIN 16 CLE 14
  5. 5 CIN 17 CLE 20
  6. 6 CIN 17 CLE 23
  7. 7 CIN 19 CLE 27
  8. 8 CIN 17 CLE 28
  9. 9 CIN 20 CLE 35
  10. 10 CIN 17 CLE 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 37% of them, Browns 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+4.9%
Bengals by 9–1610.5%
Bengals by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.7%
Browns by 1–826.5%
Browns by 9–1620.8%
Browns by 17+15.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.4 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 8, without the luck Bengals by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 77% expected
  • R. Bullock, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 53 yds made · 59% expected
  • A. Seibert, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 8 for 99 yards, Browns 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:05 Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Andy Dalton), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 6:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Joe Mixon), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.1 pts
Q1 2:55 Encroachment on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q1 0:42 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bengals (Darqueze Dennard), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 13:31 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 11:40 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 11:10 Illegal Shift on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% CIN +1.2 pts
Q2 1:20 False Start on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CIN +0.3 pts
Q2 1:11 Face Mask on the Bengals (Stanley Morgan Jr.), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 0:54 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.1 pts
Q2 0:43 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bengals (Auden Tate), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 12:10 Face Mask on the Bengals (Darius Phillips), 14 yards +2% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 11:42 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (John Ross), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 5:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 5 yards, wiping out the play +12% CLE +5.7 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:05 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bengals (Andy Dalton), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 610 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +13% CLE CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 5:46 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +46% CLE CIN: Field goal
3 Q2 10:38 The Browns converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:44 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 0:20 A. Seibert made 53-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 10:36 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 7:20 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% CLE CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 5:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 673 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% CLE CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Hubbard (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Demetrius Harris (CLE TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Jerry (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 81% · Browns 19%

Final margin
Browns by 8
Luck in points
15.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 37% · Browns 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Bengals · Browns

More from Week 14 2019