luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Falcons, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 40–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:45 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Carolina Panthers 20
Atlanta Falcons 40

December 8, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3.5

Luck index +8 Falcons about even · −8 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Falcons win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 26 ATL 20
  2. 2 CAR 32 ATL 34
  3. 3 CAR 27 ATL 33
  4. 4 CAR 3 ATL 13
  5. 5 CAR 17 ATL 30
  6. 6 CAR 25 ATL 40
  7. 7 CAR 17 ATL 36
  8. 8 CAR 20 ATL 44
  9. 9 CAR 24 ATL 52
  10. 10 CAR 13 ATL 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 8% of them, Falcons 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.7%
Panthers by 9–161.4%
Panthers by 1–84.9%
Level after regulation1.1%
Falcons by 1–811.2%
Falcons by 9–1621.0%
Falcons by 17+59.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 20, without the luck Falcons by 13.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 44 yards, Falcons 6 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q1 13:03 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 11:31 Illegal Touch Kick on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 0 yards 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q1 11:31 False Start on the Falcons (Brian Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.4 pts
Q1 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 10 yards +3% CAR +1.0 pts
Q2 3:32 Encroachment on the Panthers (Vernon Butler), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 0:08 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.1 pts
Q3 11:39 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Bruce Irvin), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 7:44 Illegal Bat on the Falcons (Kenjon Barner), 4 yards +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 10:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 34 yards 0% CAR +2.0 pts
Q4 10:08 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ATL +3.1 pts
Q4 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards 0% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 1:26 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:35 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% CAR ATL: Punt
2 Q1 4:55 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q1 2:55 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% CAR ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 11:47 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% CAR ATL: Punt
5 Q2 8:11 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% ATL CAR: Punt
6 Q2 5:22 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:50 The Panthers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ATL CAR: Punt
8 Q3 6:45 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Carpenter (ATL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamon Brown (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Olsen (CAR TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Falcons 100%

Final margin
Falcons by 20
Luck in points
6.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 8% · Falcons 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Panthers · Falcons

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