luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Jaguars, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Jaguars 45–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:15 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 5, worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 45
Jacksonville Jaguars 10

December 8, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +4 Chargers about even · −4 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 10, Jaguars win 0.

  1. 1 LAC 48 JAX 13
  2. 2 LAC 41 JAX 13
  3. 3 LAC 37 JAX 14
  4. 4 LAC 24 JAX 6
  5. 5 LAC 30 JAX 14
  6. 6 LAC 34 JAX 20
  7. 7 LAC 26 JAX 15
  8. 8 LAC 37 JAX 27
  9. 9 LAC 16 JAX 9
  10. 10 LAC 30 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 96% of them, Jaguars 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+66.6%
Chargers by 9–1620.6%
Chargers by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jaguars by 1–82.6%
Jaguars by 9–160.5%
Jaguars by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 35, without the luck Chargers by 25.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 65 yards, Jaguars 10 for 101 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 6 yards +3% LAC +1.0 pts
Q1 1:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers (Keenan Allen), 10 yards +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 2:33 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +6% LAC +1.5 pts
Q2 1:52 Face Mask on the Jaguars, 15 yards +2% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 1:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.2 pts
Q2 0:46 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jaguars, 15 yards +2% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 0:19 Encroachment on the Jaguars (Calais Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.5 pts
Q3 10:59 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dede Westbrook), 10 yards 0% LAC +1.0 pts
Q3 8:46 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 6:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Desmond King), 8 yards 0% JAX +3.7 pts
Q3 6:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 12 yards 0% JAX +1.5 pts
Q3 2:01 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 15 yards 0% JAX +1.5 pts
Q3 1:51 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Jaguars (Ryquell Armstead), 15 yards 0% LAC +1.2 pts
Q4 9:29 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards 0% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 8:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 15 yards 0% JAX +1.3 pts
Q4 4:03 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.6 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:15 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 4:22 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% LAC JAX: Punt
3 Q1 2:55 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +4% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q1 0:06 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% JAX LAC: Punt
5 Q2 14:09 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q2 12:16 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% LAC JAX: Punt
7 Q2 2:33 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:06 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcell Dareus (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (JAX SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Najee Goode (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Roderic Teamer (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Forrest Lamp (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
Chargers by 35
Luck in points
9.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 25.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 96% · Jaguars 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Chargers · Jaguars

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