luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Packers, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat Washington 20–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Packers were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:28 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 14, worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Washington Redskins 15
Green Bay Packers 20

December 8, 2019 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −13

Luck index +10 Packers about even · −10 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 19 GB 13
  2. 2 WAS 24 GB 26
  3. 3 WAS 16 GB 21
  4. 4 WAS 24 GB 31
  5. 5 WAS 13 GB 23
  6. 6 WAS 10 GB 23
  7. 7 WAS 21 GB 36
  8. 8 WAS 14 GB 34
  9. 9 WAS 14 GB 37
  10. 10 WAS 10 GB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 10% of them, Packers 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.7%
Washington by 9–162.3%
Washington by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation1.5%
Packers by 1–817.7%
Packers by 9–1622.1%
Packers by 17+49.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Washington: the final margin was Packers by 5, without the luck Packers by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 52 yds made · 60% expected
  • M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 3 for 25 yards, Packers 5 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:12 False Start on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.1 pts
Q1 9:06 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 10 yards +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 14:15 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Kyler Fackrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +1.2 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q2 0:21 Illegal Substitution on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 10:08 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +2.8 pts
Q3 4:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers, 14 yards +3% WAS +2.3 pts
Q3 4:19 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% GB WAS: Punt
2 Q2 4:37 Washington converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:44 Washington missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +5% GB WAS: Turnover
4 Q2 2:57 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% GB GB: Turnover
5 Q2 0:58 The Packers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% WAS GB: End of half
6 Q3 10:08 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% GB GB: Punt
7 Q3 9:38 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% WAS WAS: Punt
8 Q4 8:28 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Quinn (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 10% · Packers 90%

Final margin
Packers by 5
Luck in points
2.5 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Washington 10% · Packers 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Washington · Packers

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