luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Bills, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bills 24–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:05 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 26 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
Buffalo Bills 17

December 8, 2019 · New Era Field · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Bills win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 45 BUF 7
  2. 2 BAL 39 BUF 6
  3. 3 BAL 45 BUF 17
  4. 4 BAL 38 BUF 13
  5. 5 BAL 44 BUF 23
  6. 6 BAL 31 BUF 13
  7. 7 BAL 35 BUF 19
  8. 8 BAL 36 BUF 23
  9. 9 BAL 25 BUF 17
  10. 10 BAL 27 BUF 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 97% of them, Bills 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+76.6%
Ravens by 9–1614.1%
Ravens by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.6%
Bills by 1–81.8%
Bills by 9–160.9%
Bills by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to the Bills: the final margin was Ravens by 7, without the luck Ravens by 17.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 47 yds made · 68% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 48 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 9 for 99 yards, Bills 4 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:23 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 4 yards +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 13:26 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens, 15 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 7:40 Face Mask on the Bills (Kevin Johnson), 15 yards +5% BAL +1.9 pts
Q2 7:15 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +3.2 pts
Q2 3:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (De'Anthony Thomas), 2 yards +1% BUF +0.2 pts
Q3 13:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Earl Thomas), 15 yards +2% BUF +1.7 pts
Q4 12:59 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Trent Murphy), 15 yards +2% BAL +1.7 pts
Q4 8:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.1 pts
Q4 8:16 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q4 5:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens, 15 yards +5% BUF +1.5 pts
Q4 4:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Jaylon Ferguson), 15 yards +7% BUF +1.8 pts
Q4 4:23 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 2:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 26 yards +18% BUF +3.9 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:03 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% BAL BUF: Field goal
2 Q2 7:15 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 346 +6% BUF BUF: Punt
3 Q2 4:23 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% BAL BUF: Punt
4 Q2 0:30 S. Hauschka made 47-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q4 4:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Jaylon Ferguson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 382 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +7% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:49 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% BAL BUF: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 740 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +18% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:08 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ty Nsekhe (BUF T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Bills 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
10.8 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 17.8
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 97% · Bills 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Ravens · Bills

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