luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2019: game by game

The Eagles went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.0 wins. Luck cost them 0.0: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Washington W 32–27 81% +19
Week 2 @ Falcons L 20–24 12% −12
Week 3 vs Lions L 24–27 36% −36
Week 4 @ Packers W 34–27 84% +16
Week 5 vs Jets W 31–6 99% +1
Week 6 @ Vikings L 20–38 27% −27
Week 7 @ Cowboys L 10–37 3% −3
Week 8 @ Bills W 31–13 96% +4
Week 9 vs Bears W 22–14 90% +10
Week 11 vs Patriots L 10–17 50% −50
Week 12 vs Seahawks L 9–17 47% −47
Week 13 @ Dolphins L 31–37 45% −45
Week 14 vs Giants W 23–17 88% +12
Week 15 @ Washington W 37–27 28% +72
Week 16 vs Cowboys W 17–9 55% +45
Week 17 @ Giants W 34–17 66% +34
Wild Card vs Seahawks L 9–17 31% −31

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.07+2.4
Fumble bounces−0.02−6.3
Rest−0.05−2.2
Injuries−0.29−8.9
Judgment calls−0.49+5.5