Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at Bills, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Bills 31–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bills.
An off day for the Bills: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:00 left): the Bills were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 25 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 31 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Eagles about even · −4 Bills
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Bills win 0.
- 1 PHI 37 BUF 0
- 2 PHI 30 BUF 0
- 3 PHI 36 BUF 12
- 4 PHI 30 BUF 10
- 5 PHI 20 BUF 3
- 6 PHI 24 BUF 9
- 7 PHI 32 BUF 20
- 8 PHI 19 BUF 10
- 9 PHI 21 BUF 16
- 10 PHI 26 BUF 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bills
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Bills: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.12 | better by 0.08 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.14 | better by 0.14 |
| Bills offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.07 | worse by 0.08 |
| Bills defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.05 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 96% of them, Bills 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 66.2% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 9.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 3.0% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Bills by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 87% expected
- S. Hauschka, 53 yds missed · 55% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Eagles 4 for 44 yards, Bills 8 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:46 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 7 yards | +6% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q1 1:47 | Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 15 yards | +6% BUF +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 9 yards | +4% BUF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Bills (Lee Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:09 | Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 15 yards | +6% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 14:02 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Lee Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PHI +1.7 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Defensive Offside on the Bills (Shaq Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.2 pts |
| Q4 6:01 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:01 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:34 | Defensive Offside on the Bills (Trent Murphy), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.1 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:54 | The Bills converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +11% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:33 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 2:00 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +25% PHI | BUF: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:25 | The Eagles’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 420 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 | +13% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:02 | S. Hauschka missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before | +19% BUF | BUF: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 12:57 | The Bills converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +6% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:13 | The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:44 | The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +16% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jason Croom (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jason Peters (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts
- Nigel Bradham (PHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 97% · Bills 3%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 18
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 13.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 96% · Bills 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · 
Eagles · 
Bills
More from Week 8 2019
- Washington at Vikings MIN 19–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Saints NO 31–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals vs Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 15–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Bears LAC 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 31–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars JAX 29–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 27–20 · replay 37% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Titans TEN 27–23 · replay 16% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 51–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 27–13 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Packers at Chiefs GB 31–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Dolphins at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 92% for the winner