luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Jaguars, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Jets 29–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:29 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Robbie Chosen), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

New York Jets 15
Jacksonville Jaguars 29

October 27, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −7

Luck index +11 Jaguars about even · −11 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 23 JAX 16
  2. 2 NYJ 10 JAX 13
  3. 3 NYJ 19 JAX 26
  4. 4 NYJ 10 JAX 20
  5. 5 NYJ 12 JAX 25
  6. 6 NYJ 16 JAX 31
  7. 7 NYJ 6 JAX 24
  8. 8 NYJ 7 JAX 29
  9. 9 NYJ 6 JAX 31
  10. 10 NYJ 6 JAX 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 11% of them, Jaguars 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.7%
Jets by 9–162.9%
Jets by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jaguars by 1–816.4%
Jaguars by 9–1620.0%
Jaguars by 17+50.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +17.0 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 14, without the luck Jets by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Lambo, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Lambo, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 10 for 83 yards, Jaguars 9 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:39 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Jets (Trevon Wesco), 7 yards +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 11:15 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Yannick Ngakoue), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q1 9:37 Face Mask on the Jets, 15 yards +3% JAX +1.9 pts
Q1 8:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q1 4:01 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q1 3:30 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q1 0:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Robbie Chosen), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% JAX +5.1 pts
Q2 12:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Josh Robinson), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 4:30 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q2 2:16 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 9:13 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +2.8 pts
Q3 8:51 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q3 3:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 15 yards +2% JAX +1.3 pts
Q3 3:28 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 10 yards +2% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 10:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q4 10:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Jamison Crowder), 10 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 6:23 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jets, 1 yard 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 4:08 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 3:18 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards 0% NYJ +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:26 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:01 The Jets converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Robbie Chosen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 335 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +13% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q2 13:15 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYJ JAX: Field goal
5 Q2 10:31 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q2 8:49 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 6:51 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 2:16 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% JAX NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcell Dareus (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (NYJ T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Brent Qvale (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Herndon (NYJ TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry Anderson (NYJ DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Neville Hewitt (NYJ LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 54% · Jaguars 46%

Final margin
Jaguars by 14
Luck in points
17.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 11% · Jaguars 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Jets · Jaguars

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