luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Lions, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Giants 31–26, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:20 left): Return touchdown by the Lions, worth 29 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

New York Giants 26
Detroit Lions 31

October 27, 2019 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −6.5

Luck index +50 Lions lucky · −50 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Lions win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 26 DET 3
  2. 2 NYG 33 DET 20
  3. 3 NYG 30 DET 20
  4. 4 NYG 26 DET 21
  5. 5 NYG 9 DET 7
  6. 6 NYG 12 DET 14
  7. 7 NYG 19 DET 24
  8. 8 NYG 12 DET 21
  9. 9 NYG 0 DET 13
  10. 10 NYG 10 DET 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 50% of them, Lions 50%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+10.4%
Giants by 9–1614.6%
Giants by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation5.0%
Lions by 1–822.8%
Lions by 9–1613.7%
Lions by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Giants: the final margin was Lions by 5, without the luck Lions by 6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 53 yds missed · 71% expected
  • M. Prater, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 44 yards, Lions 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:37 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 2:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants, 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 0:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +2.4 pts
Q2 9:55 Chop Block on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +2.4 pts
Q2 1:59 Running Into the Kicker on the Giants (David Mayo), 5 yards +7% DET +2.7 pts
Q2 0:41 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 7:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jarrad Davis), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.1 pts
Q3 6:23 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +3% NYG +1.9 pts
Q3 1:03 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +8% NYG +2.2 pts
Q3 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% DET +2.3 pts
Q4 12:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Rhett Ellison), 9 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 25 yards +1% NYG +1.7 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:25 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% DET DET: Turnover
2 Q1 7:20 The Giants fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +29% DET NYG: Punt
3 Q1 2:39 The Lions converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:45 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:39 The Giants missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +8% DET NYG: End of half
6 Q3 12:35 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:03 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yardsJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Punt
8 Q3 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darius Slay (DET CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 25% · Lions 75%

Final margin
Lions by 5
Luck in points
1.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 50% · Lions 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Giants · Lions

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