luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Saints, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Cardinals 31–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Saints were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:06 left): Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 24 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 9
New Orleans Saints 31

October 27, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −12.5

Luck index +4 Saints about even · −4 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 0, Saints win 10.

  1. 1 ARI 14 NO 16
  2. 2 ARI 25 NO 31
  3. 3 ARI 14 NO 23
  4. 4 ARI 24 NO 35
  5. 5 ARI 20 NO 34
  6. 6 ARI 17 NO 34
  7. 7 ARI 14 NO 34
  8. 8 ARI 17 NO 41
  9. 9 ARI 7 NO 34
  10. 10 ARI 0 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 4% of them, Saints 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.2%
Cardinals by 9–160.8%
Cardinals by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation0.9%
Saints by 1–88.0%
Saints by 9–1619.3%
Saints by 17+67.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Saints by 22, without the luck Saints by 28. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 35 yards, Saints 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Corey Peters), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts
Q2 14:39 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% NO 0.0 pts
Q2 2:59 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 0:06 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +24% ARI +7.0 pts
Q3 14:05 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 10 yards +3% NO +1.1 pts
Q3 12:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Terrell Suggs), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 3:52 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 10 yards 0% NO +0.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% NO NO: Missed field goal
2 Q1 9:00 W. Lutz missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before +8% ARI NO: Field goal
3 Q1 2:43 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% NO NO: Field goal
4 Q2 14:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% ARI NO: Field goal
5 Q2 2:59 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% ARI NO: Punt
6 Q2 0:06 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +24% ARI ARI: Punt
7 Q3 7:36 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% NO ARI: Field goal
8 Q3 6:51 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jared Cook (NO TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • David Johnson (ARI RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • KeeSean Johnson (ARI WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 22
Luck in points
6.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 28.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 4% · Saints 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Cardinals · Saints

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