Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chargers at Bears, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Bears 17–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.
An off day for the Bears: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): E. Pineiro missed 41-yard field goal, worth 67 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Chargers about even · −22 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 LAC 27 CHI 0
- 2 LAC 32 CHI 13
- 3 LAC 33 CHI 17
- 4 LAC 16 CHI 3
- 5 LAC 28 CHI 19
- 6 LAC 16 CHI 9
- 7 LAC 15 CHI 12
- 8 LAC 15 CHI 13
- 9 LAC 17 CHI 20
- 10 LAC 13 CHI 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.15 | worse by 0.10 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.14 | better by 0.10 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.10 | worse by 0.06 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.04 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 78% of them, Bears 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 29.0% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 27.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Bears by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 33 yds missed · 94% expected
- E. Pineiro, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- E. Pineiro, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- E. Pineiro, 19 yds made · 99% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 42 yds missed · 83% expected
- E. Pineiro, 41 yds missed · 85% expected
Penalties: Chargers 8 for 53 yards, Bears 5 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:35 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q1 10:46 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +3% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards | +1% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:09 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards | +2% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Chargers, 4 yards | +2% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Casey Hayward), 2 yards | +3% CHI +2.0 pts |
| Q3 7:25 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Hunter Henry), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% CHI +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:12 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% CHI +1.9 pts |
| Q4 8:39 | Face Mask on the Bears (Leonard Floyd), 12 yards | +8% LAC +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:04 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (J.P. Holtz), 10 yards | +1% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:22 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +6% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Casey Hayward), 7 yards | +6% CHI +1.2 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:18 | E. Pineiro missed 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +9% LAC | CHI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:48 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +13% CHI | LAC: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 12:12 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% CHI | CHI: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 9:32 | The Bears fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% LAC | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 8:39 | Face Mask on the Bears (Leonard Floyd), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 357 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 | +8% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:58 | The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:44 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +11% LAC | CHI: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | The game turned hereE. Pineiro missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +67% LAC | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Justin Jones (LAC DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Adrian Phillips (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Brandon Mebane (LAC NT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 81% · Bears 19%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 1
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 78% · Bears 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · 
Chargers · 
Bears
More from Week 8 2019
- Washington at Vikings MIN 19–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Saints NO 31–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals vs Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 15–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 31–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars JAX 29–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eagles at Bills PHI 31–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 27–20 · replay 37% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Titans TEN 27–23 · replay 16% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 51–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Patriots NE 27–13 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Packers at Chiefs GB 31–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Dolphins at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 92% for the winner