luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at 49ers, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Panthers 51–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:21 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 13
San Francisco 49ers 51

October 27, 2019 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −4.5

Luck index +2 49ers about even · −2 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 19 SF 22
  2. 2 CAR 35 SF 44
  3. 3 CAR 30 SF 43
  4. 4 CAR 9 SF 26
  5. 5 CAR 23 SF 43
  6. 6 CAR 12 SF 36
  7. 7 CAR 14 SF 41
  8. 8 CAR 16 SF 48
  9. 9 CAR 6 SF 43
  10. 10 CAR 10 SF 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 2% of them, 49ers 98%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.1%
Panthers by 9–160.3%
Panthers by 1–81.3%
Level after regulation0.3%
49ers by 1–84.0%
49ers by 9–1610.9%
49ers by 17+83.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 38, without the luck 49ers by 30.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 41 yds made · 81% expected
  • R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 9 for 70 yards, 49ers 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 15 yards +4% SF +1.8 pts
Q1 1:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% CAR +2.6 pts
Q2 14:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% SF +1.6 pts
Q2 12:43 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the 49ers (Mitch Wishnowsky), 15 yards +2% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 12:37 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% SF +4.7 pts
Q2 10:37 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.3 pts
Q2 8:57 False Start on the 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 2:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Dontari Poe), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.6 pts
Q3 11:15 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Ronald Blair), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q3 7:11 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 10 yards +1% SF +1.0 pts
Q3 0:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Eric Reid), 5 yards 0% SF +2.6 pts
Q4 12:52 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Alex Armah), 10 yards 0% SF +1.0 pts
Q4 7:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards 0% SF +0.6 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:57 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% SF CAR: Punt
3 Q1 5:10 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% SF CAR: Field goal
4 Q1 2:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 441 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +4% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 209 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +9% CAR CAR: Turnover
6 Q2 14:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:37 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% SF SF: Punt
8 Q2 6:32 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% CAR CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Staley (SF T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Mike McGlinchey (SF T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (SF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marquise Goodwin (SF WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 38
Luck in points
7.9 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 30.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 2% · 49ers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Panthers · 49ers

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