luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · October 24, 2019–October 28

Week 8 2019: who deserved to win

5 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Titans beat the Buccaneers 27–23 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Chargers 17–16 @ Bears 40% 78% Deserved
Eagles 31–13 @ Bills 47% 96% Deserved

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Titans W 27–23 vs Buccaneers 16% +84
2 Seahawks W 27–20 @ Falcons 37% +63
3 Packers W 31–24 @ Chiefs 40% +60
4 Texans W 27–24 vs Raiders 43% +57
5 Lions W 31–26 vs Giants 50% +50
6 Patriots W 27–13 vs Browns 72% +28
7 Chargers W 17–16 @ Bears 78% +22
8 Vikings W 19–9 vs Washington 82% +18
9 Colts W 15–13 vs Broncos 83% +17
10 Jaguars W 29–15 vs Jets 89% +11
11 Rams W 24–10 vs Bengals 91% +9
12 Steelers W 27–14 vs Dolphins 92% +8
13 Saints W 31–9 vs Cardinals 96% +4
14 Eagles W 31–13 @ Bills 96% +4
15 49ers W 51–13 vs Panthers 98% +2
16 Panthers L 13–51 @ 49ers 2% −2
17 Bills L 13–31 vs Eagles 4% −4
18 Cardinals L 9–31 @ Saints 4% −4
19 Dolphins L 14–27 @ Steelers 8% −8
20 Bengals L 10–24 @ Rams 9% −9
21 Jets L 15–29 @ Jaguars 11% −11
22 Broncos L 13–15 @ Colts 17% −17
23 Washington L 9–19 @ Vikings 18% −18
24 Bears L 16–17 vs Chargers 22% −22
25 Browns L 13–27 @ Patriots 28% −28
26 Giants L 26–31 @ Lions 50% −50
27 Raiders L 24–27 @ Texans 57% −57
28 Chiefs L 24–31 vs Packers 60% −60
29 Falcons L 20–27 vs Seahawks 63% −63
30 Buccaneers L 23–27 @ Titans 84% −84