luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · October 17, 2019–October 21

Week 7 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Colts beat the Texans 30–23 in a game they win 12% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Saints 36–25 @ Bears 38% 99% Deserved
Cardinals 27–21 @ Giants 40% 87% Deserved
Ravens 30–16 @ Seahawks 41% 64% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 30–23 vs Texans 12% +88
2 Titans W 23–20 vs Chargers 20% +80
3 Packers W 42–24 vs Raiders 38% +62
4 Ravens W 30–16 @ Seahawks 64% +36
5 Jaguars W 27–17 @ Bengals 79% +21
6 Rams W 37–10 @ Falcons 80% +20
7 49ers W 9–0 @ Washington 84% +16
8 Vikings W 42–30 @ Lions 84% +16
9 Bills W 31–21 vs Dolphins 84% +16
10 Cardinals W 27–21 @ Giants 87% +13
11 Patriots W 33–0 @ Jets 97% +3
12 Cowboys W 37–10 vs Eagles 97% +3
13 Chiefs W 30–6 @ Broncos 98% +2
14 Saints W 36–25 @ Bears 99% +1
15 Bears L 25–36 vs Saints 1% −1
16 Broncos L 6–30 vs Chiefs 2% −2
17 Eagles L 10–37 @ Cowboys 3% −3
18 Jets L 0–33 vs Patriots 3% −3
19 Giants L 21–27 vs Cardinals 13% −13
20 Dolphins L 21–31 @ Bills 16% −16
21 Lions L 30–42 vs Vikings 16% −16
22 Washington L 0–9 vs 49ers 16% −16
23 Falcons L 10–37 vs Rams 20% −20
24 Bengals L 17–27 vs Jaguars 21% −21
25 Seahawks L 16–30 vs Ravens 36% −36
26 Raiders L 24–42 @ Packers 62% −62
27 Chargers L 20–23 @ Titans 80% −80
28 Texans L 23–30 @ Colts 88% −88