luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · October 10, 2019–October 14

Week 6 2019: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jets beat the Cowboys 24–22 in a game they win 4% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jets 24–22 vs Cowboys 30% 4% Lucky
Steelers 24–17 @ Chargers 33% 17% Lucky
Texans 31–24 @ Chiefs 40% 71% Deserved
Cardinals 34–33 vs Falcons 41% 31% Lucky
49ers 20–7 @ Rams 41% 90% Deserved
Saints 13–6 @ Jaguars 43% 49% Coin flip
Seahawks 32–28 @ Browns 47% 58% Coin flip

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jets W 24–22 vs Cowboys 4% +96
2 Steelers W 24–17 @ Chargers 17% +83
3 Cardinals W 34–33 vs Falcons 31% +69
4 Saints W 13–6 @ Jaguars 49% +51
5 Panthers W 37–26 @ Buccaneers 50% +50
6 Packers W 23–22 vs Lions 56% +44
7 Seahawks W 32–28 @ Browns 58% +42
8 Patriots W 35–14 vs Giants 64% +36
9 Texans W 31–24 @ Chiefs 71% +29
10 Vikings W 38–20 vs Eagles 73% +27
11 Washington W 17–16 @ Dolphins 89% +11
12 Broncos W 16–0 vs Titans 90% +10
13 Ravens W 23–17 vs Bengals 90% +10
14 49ers W 20–7 @ Rams 90% +10
15 Rams L 7–20 vs 49ers 10% −10
16 Bengals L 17–23 @ Ravens 10% −10
17 Titans L 0–16 @ Broncos 10% −10
18 Dolphins L 16–17 vs Washington 11% −11
19 Eagles L 20–38 @ Vikings 27% −27
20 Chiefs L 24–31 vs Texans 29% −29
21 Giants L 14–35 @ Patriots 36% −36
22 Browns L 28–32 vs Seahawks 42% −42
23 Lions L 22–23 @ Packers 44% −44
24 Buccaneers L 26–37 vs Panthers 50% −50
25 Jaguars L 6–13 vs Saints 51% −51
26 Falcons L 33–34 @ Cardinals 69% −69
27 Chargers L 17–24 vs Steelers 83% −83
28 Cowboys L 22–24 @ Jets 96% −96