Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Seahawks at Browns, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Browns 32–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:07 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 32 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Seahawks lucky · −42 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Browns win 4.
- 1 SEA 34 CLE 6
- 2 SEA 44 CLE 26
- 3 SEA 27 CLE 13
- 4 SEA 40 CLE 31
- 5 SEA 25 CLE 20
- 6 SEA 33 CLE 31
- 7 SEA 13 CLE 16
- 8 SEA 30 CLE 37
- 9 SEA 17 CLE 30
- 10 SEA 10 CLE 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 58% of them, Browns 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 16.5% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| Browns by 17+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 38 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Myers, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 10 for 65 yards, Browns 9 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:49 | Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Mychal Kendricks), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA 0.0 pts |
| Q1 9:20 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:54 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yards | +2% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:31 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:28 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 15 yards | +3% SEA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q3 14:22 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +5% CLE +1.8 pts |
| Q3 9:39 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SEA +2.0 pts |
| Q3 6:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (T.J. Carrie), 5 yards | +2% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:24 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +10% SEA +2.5 pts |
| Q3 4:54 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 13 yards | +1% SEA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:01 | Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards | +4% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:34 | Encroachment on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 10:44 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +15% CLE +2.1 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yards | +6% CLE +1.1 pts |
| Q4 7:55 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Browns (Morgan Burnett), 15 yards | +8% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns (Eric Murray), 5 yards | +2% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:33 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +19% CLE +2.1 pts |
| Q4 3:30 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% SEA +1.2 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:04 | The Browns converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +13% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 0:27 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +12% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:07 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +11% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 1:07 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +27% CLE | SEA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 10:44 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 0 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +15% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 10:43 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +20% SEA | CLE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:02 | The Browns’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +12% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 6:33 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +19% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
- David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Genard Avery (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts
- Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
- D.J. Fluker (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
- Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Ethan Pocic (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 37% · Browns 63%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 4
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 58% · Browns 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · 
Seahawks · 
Browns
More from Week 6 2019
- Giants at Patriots NE 35–14 · replay 64% for the winner
- Panthers vs Buccaneers CAR 37–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Chiefs HOU 31–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Jaguars NO 13–6 · replay 49% for the winner
- Eagles at Vikings MIN 38–20 · replay 73% for the winner
- Washington at Dolphins WAS 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 31% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 20–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets NYJ 24–22 · replay 4% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos DEN 16–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers PIT 24–17 · replay 17% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 23–22 · replay 56% for the winner