luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Chiefs, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chiefs 31–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Chiefs had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:09 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 21 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Houston Texans 31
Kansas City Chiefs 24

October 13, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +29 Texans lucky · −29 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 7, Chiefs win 3.

  1. 1 HOU 40 KC 14
  2. 2 HOU 37 KC 19
  3. 3 HOU 27 KC 13
  4. 4 HOU 24 KC 14
  5. 5 HOU 30 KC 23
  6. 6 HOU 21 KC 17
  7. 7 HOU 30 KC 28
  8. 8 HOU 20 KC 23
  9. 9 HOU 30 KC 38
  10. 10 HOU 24 KC 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 71% of them, Chiefs 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+23.4%
Texans by 9–1620.9%
Texans by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation3.7%
Chiefs by 1–815.5%
Chiefs by 9–167.9%
Chiefs by 17+4.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 7, without the luck Texans by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • H. Butker, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds missed · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 10 for 70 yards, Chiefs 11 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Chiefs (Anthony Sherman), 9 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 13:52 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards +7% HOU +1.2 pts
Q1 13:31 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.1 pts
Q1 12:19 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% HOU +1.7 pts
Q1 10:50 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% HOU +1.8 pts
Q1 5:46 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 15 yards +5% KC +2.4 pts
Q2 12:10 False Start on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 11:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Phillip Gaines), 15 yards +4% KC +1.5 pts
Q2 10:43 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Phillip Gaines), 5 yards 0% KC +0.2 pts
Q2 2:18 Defensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +2% KC +0.3 pts
Q2 1:07 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 1:07 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 0:58 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:16 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards +2% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 0:39 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.3 pts
Q4 14:13 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Morris Claiborne), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 12:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% KC +1.8 pts
Q4 9:19 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% KC +1.8 pts
Q4 8:08 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% KC +1.5 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:10 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:53 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +18% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:39 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +12% KC HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:32 The Chiefs fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% HOU KC: End of half
5 Q3 11:00 K. Fairbairn missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +11% KC HOU: Turnover
6 Q3 0:09 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +21% KC HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% KC KC: Punt
8 Q4 9:19 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% KC KC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (KC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Jones (KC DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Hitchens (KC LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Joseph (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 92% · Chiefs 8%

Final margin
Texans by 7
Luck in points
1.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 71% · Chiefs 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Texans · Chiefs

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