luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Ravens, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 24 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
Baltimore Ravens 23

October 13, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −10.5

Luck index +10 Ravens about even · −10 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 10 BAL 3
  2. 2 CIN 8 BAL 10
  3. 3 CIN 17 BAL 21
  4. 4 CIN 17 BAL 24
  5. 5 CIN 21 BAL 30
  6. 6 CIN 14 BAL 26
  7. 7 CIN 20 BAL 35
  8. 8 CIN 7 BAL 26
  9. 9 CIN 7 BAL 31
  10. 10 CIN 3 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 10% of them, Ravens 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.5%
Bengals by 9–161.8%
Bengals by 1–86.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Ravens by 1–818.5%
Ravens by 9–1624.7%
Ravens by 17+46.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Ravens by 6, without the luck Ravens by 10.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Bullock, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Tucker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 20 yards, Ravens 10 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q1 7:02 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q1 3:55 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q1 3:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% BAL +1.6 pts
Q1 3:03 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 10 yards +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 13:27 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +1.1 pts
Q3 12:14 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 12:58 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 9:06 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Nick Boyle), 10 yards +1% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 2:46 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.6 pts
Q4 2:46 False Start on the Bengals (Andy Dalton), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.2 pts
Q4 1:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Carr), 15 yards 0% CIN +1.9 pts
Q4 1:34 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 2 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.3 pts
Q4 1:28 Illegal Touch Kick on the Bengals (Brandon Wilson), 0 yards 0% BAL 0.0 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +24% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:21 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% BAL CIN: Punt
3 Q1 8:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% CIN CIN: Punt
4 Q2 12:23 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% CIN CIN: Punt
5 Q2 4:14 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% CIN CIN: Turnover
6 Q2 0:42 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% BAL CIN: Field goal
7 Q3 7:14 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% BAL CIN: Punt
8 Q3 0:15 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% CIN BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marquise Brown (BAL WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Onwuasor (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Carlos Dunlap (CIN DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 3% · Ravens 97%

Final margin
Ravens by 6
Luck in points
4.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 10% · Ravens 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Bengals · Ravens

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