luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Jaguars, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Jaguars 13–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:53 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 4, worth 18 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 13
Jacksonville Jaguars 6

October 13, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −2.5

Luck index +51 Saints lucky · −51 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 5, Jaguars win 5.

  1. 1 NO 35 JAX 14
  2. 2 NO 31 JAX 17
  3. 3 NO 12 JAX 3
  4. 4 NO 13 JAX 9
  5. 5 NO 26 JAX 24
  6. 6 NO 14 JAX 17
  7. 7 NO 7 JAX 13
  8. 8 NO 17 JAX 26
  9. 9 NO 13 JAX 27
  10. 10 NO 10 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 49% of them, Jaguars 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+9.2%
Saints by 9–1613.8%
Saints by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation6.2%
Jaguars by 1–823.9%
Jaguars by 9–1614.9%
Jaguars by 17+8.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 7, without the luck Saints by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Lambo, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Lambo, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 3 for 35 yards, Jaguars 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:29 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Michael Thomas), 10 yards +4% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 3:11 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 11:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Demario Davis), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.6 pts
Q4 10:27 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:59 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 5:00 The Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q1 4:16 The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% NO NO: Field goal
4 Q2 7:46 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 7:50 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q3 3:56 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +10% NO JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 14:56 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +18% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Ramsey (JAX CB), out · 1.6 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (NO DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 88% · Jaguars 12%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
2.9 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Saints 49% · Jaguars 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Saints · Jaguars

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