Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Jets, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?
The Jets stole one. They beat the Cowboys 24–22, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.
The Jets won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:43 left): the Cowboys’ two-point try failed, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 22 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +96 Jets very lucky · −96 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Jets win 0.
- 1 DAL 41 NYJ 7
- 2 DAL 27 NYJ 0
- 3 DAL 26 NYJ 3
- 4 DAL 34 NYJ 14
- 5 DAL 38 NYJ 20
- 6 DAL 26 NYJ 10
- 7 DAL 16 NYJ 3
- 8 DAL 26 NYJ 16
- 9 DAL 15 NYJ 10
- 10 DAL 23 NYJ 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Jets won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.15 | worse by 0.05 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.09 | worse by 0.26 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | +0.00 | better by 0.35 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.14 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 96% of them, Jets 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 66.3% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 3.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Jets by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Maher, 50 yds made · 69% expected
- B. Maher, 62 yds made · 51% expected
- B. Maher, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Maher, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
- S. Ficken, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 68 yards, Jets 8 for 105 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:49 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | 0% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 20 yards | +4% NYJ +2.1 pts |
| Q1 6:11 | Encroachment on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:32 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Cowboys (Maliek Collins), 2 yards | +2% NYJ +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Byron Jones), 1 yard | 0% NYJ +0.1 pts |
| Q1 0:58 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Tavon Austin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% NYJ +2.0 pts |
| Q2 14:46 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +4% DAL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:01 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DAL +2.3 pts |
| Q3 8:02 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NYJ +3.8 pts |
| Q3 7:50 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:03 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 11:21 | Roughing the Passer on the Jets, 15 yards | +2% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Darryl Roberts), 13 yards | +3% DAL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Blake Cashman), 24 yards | +5% DAL +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:40 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% NYJ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:34 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Michael Gallup), 10 yards | +5% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 13 yards | +4% DAL +1.1 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +9% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:24 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 6:21 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% DAL | DAL: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 3:51 | The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +10% NYJ | DAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 8:02 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 35 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 6:36 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:40 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% NYJ | NYJ: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:43 | The Cowboys’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +14% NYJ | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brent Qvale (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Kelechi Osemele (NYJ G), out · 0.5 pts
- Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Quincy Enunwa (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Henry Anderson (NYJ DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
- Randall Cobb (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
- La'el Collins (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 23% · Jets 77%
- Final margin
- Jets by 2
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 5.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 96% · Jets 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · 
Cowboys · 
Jets
More from Week 6 2019
- Giants at Patriots NE 35–14 · replay 64% for the winner
- Panthers vs Buccaneers CAR 37–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Chiefs HOU 31–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Jaguars NO 13–6 · replay 49% for the winner
- Eagles at Vikings MIN 38–20 · replay 73% for the winner
- Seahawks at Browns SEA 32–28 · replay 58% for the winner
- Washington at Dolphins WAS 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 31% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 20–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos DEN 16–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers PIT 24–17 · replay 17% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 23–22 · replay 56% for the winner