Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Chargers, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?
The Steelers stole one. They beat the Chargers 24–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10.
The Steelers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:01 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 30 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Steelers very lucky · −83 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Chargers win 8.
- 1 PIT 26 LAC 14
- 2 PIT 20 LAC 17
- 3 PIT 24 LAC 27
- 4 PIT 0 LAC 6
- 5 PIT 5 LAC 13
- 6 PIT 24 LAC 35
- 7 PIT 7 LAC 21
- 8 PIT 8 LAC 23
- 9 PIT 14 LAC 34
- 10 PIT 3 LAC 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.37 | +0.14 | better by 0.23 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.11 | better by 0.12 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.16 | worse by 0.17 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.37 | +0.13 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 17% of them, Chargers 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 26.9% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 30.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
- C. Boswell, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Steelers 6 for 45 yards, Chargers 8 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:22 | False Start on the Steelers (Justin Layne), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:05 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Chargers, 5 yards | +1% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:34 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Jatavis Brown), 10 yards | +1% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Intentional Grounding on the Chargers (Philip Rivers), 12 yards | +2% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.1 pts |
| Q3 12:59 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Thomas Davis), 15 yards | +1% PIT +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:07 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards | +1% LAC +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:34 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Desmond King), 12 yards | 0% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:34 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:52 | Taunting on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 15 yards | 0% LAC +1.7 pts |
| Q3 2:26 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 9:19 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Artie Burns), 5 yards | 0% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:46 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Daniel McCullers), 5 yards | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:03 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% PIT | LAC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:01 | The Chargers fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams | +30% PIT | LAC: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 9:39 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% LAC | LAC: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 7:28 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:41 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% PIT | LAC: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:18 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:42 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +3% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:37 | C. McLaughlin missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +4% PIT | LAC: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out · 0.8 pts
- Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Adrian Phillips (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Mason Rudolph (PIT QB), out, replaced by d.hodges · 1.6 pts
- Steven Nelson (PIT CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Mark Barron (PIT LB), out · 0.8 pts
- Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- James Washington (PIT WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 37% · Chargers 63%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 17% · Chargers 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · 
Steelers · 
Chargers
More from Week 6 2019
- Giants at Patriots NE 35–14 · replay 64% for the winner
- Panthers vs Buccaneers CAR 37–26 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Chiefs HOU 31–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Jaguars NO 13–6 · replay 49% for the winner
- Eagles at Vikings MIN 38–20 · replay 73% for the winner
- Seahawks at Browns SEA 32–28 · replay 58% for the winner
- Washington at Dolphins WAS 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 31% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 20–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets NYJ 24–22 · replay 4% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos DEN 16–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 23–22 · replay 56% for the winner