luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Broncos, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Titans 16–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:36 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 0
Denver Broncos 16

October 13, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1

Luck index +10 Broncos about even · −10 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 23 DEN 17
  2. 2 TEN 17 DEN 19
  3. 3 TEN 13 DEN 18
  4. 4 TEN 35 DEN 43
  5. 5 TEN 20 DEN 31
  6. 6 TEN 6 DEN 22
  7. 7 TEN 13 DEN 31
  8. 8 TEN 9 DEN 30
  9. 9 TEN 17 DEN 43
  10. 10 TEN 3 DEN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 10% of them, Broncos 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.6%
Titans by 9–163.2%
Titans by 1–86.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Broncos by 1–816.4%
Broncos by 9–1620.7%
Broncos by 17+51.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 16, without the luck Broncos by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 40 yards, Broncos 8 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:16 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q1 3:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 11 yards +5% TEN +1.6 pts
Q1 0:36 False Start on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 14:53 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 14:23 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Derek Wolfe), 5 yards +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 3:28 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 1:13 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 9 yards +4% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 0:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Derek Wolfe), 10 yards +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q3 3:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% DEN +5.5 pts
Q4 13:52 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.1 pts
Q4 13:01 Defensive Offside on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 12:37 False Start on the Broncos, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 2:01 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% DEN +1.5 pts
Q4 1:44 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:59 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q1 3:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 91 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +5% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q2 12:36 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% DEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 9:46 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 2:12 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% DEN TEN: Punt
6 Q3 12:36 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% TEN DEN: Punt
7 Q3 11:09 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% DEN TEN: Punt
8 Q3 3:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 154 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +9% DEN DEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Gotsis (DEN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 8% · Broncos 92%

Final margin
Broncos by 16
Luck in points
5.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Titans 10% · Broncos 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Titans · Broncos

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