luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Vikings, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Eagles 38–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:37 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 13, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 20
Minnesota Vikings 38

October 13, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +27 Vikings lucky · −27 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 39 MIN 23
  2. 2 PHI 34 MIN 26
  3. 3 PHI 27 MIN 24
  4. 4 PHI 28 MIN 31
  5. 5 PHI 38 MIN 43
  6. 6 PHI 27 MIN 36
  7. 7 PHI 17 MIN 29
  8. 8 PHI 20 MIN 36
  9. 9 PHI 20 MIN 41
  10. 10 PHI 7 MIN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 27% of them, Vikings 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+4.5%
Eagles by 9–167.9%
Eagles by 1–813.8%
Level after regulation3.5%
Vikings by 1–823.4%
Vikings by 9–1619.5%
Vikings by 17+27.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 18, without the luck Vikings by 15.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Elliott, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 7 for 49 yards, Vikings 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 7:43 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Rudy Ford), 7 yards +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 7:43 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q1 3:10 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 1:54 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 1:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 11:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Sidney Jones), 9 yards +6% MIN +2.0 pts
Q3 11:32 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PHI +2.3 pts
Q3 11:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Olabisi Johnson), 10 yards +2% PHI +1.8 pts
Q4 13:42 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q4 9:04 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Sidney Jones), 3 yards +1% MIN +1.0 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:12 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% MIN PHI: Punt
3 Q2 12:15 J. Elliott made 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +5% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 1:11 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% PHI MIN: End of half
5 Q3 11:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Sidney Jones), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 128 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% MIN MIN: Punt
6 Q3 11:32 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q3 7:05 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% MIN PHI: Field goal
8 Q4 13:42 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedDelay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% MIN PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Kline (MIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Vikings 100%

Final margin
Vikings by 18
Luck in points
2.7 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 15.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 27% · Vikings 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Eagles · Vikings

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