luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · October 3, 2019–October 7

Week 5 2019: who deserved to win

5 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Packers beat the Cowboys 34–24 in a game they win 7% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Colts 19–13 @ Chiefs 22% 83% Deserved
Raiders 24–21 vs Bears 32% 87% Deserved
Broncos 20–13 @ Chargers 38% 36% Lucky
Bills 14–7 @ Titans 40% 70% Deserved
Packers 34–24 @ Cowboys 40% 7% Lucky
Cardinals 26–23 @ Bengals 41% 75% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Packers W 34–24 @ Cowboys 7% +93
2 Broncos W 20–13 @ Chargers 36% +64
3 Panthers W 34–27 vs Jaguars 41% +59
4 Seahawks W 30–29 vs Rams 43% +57
5 Vikings W 28–10 @ Giants 49% +51
6 Texans W 53–32 vs Falcons 63% +37
7 Bills W 14–7 @ Titans 70% +30
8 Ravens W 26–23 @ Steelers 72% +28
9 Cardinals W 26–23 @ Bengals 75% +25
10 Colts W 19–13 @ Chiefs 83% +17
11 Saints W 31–24 vs Buccaneers 85% +15
12 Raiders W 24–21 vs Bears 87% +13
13 49ers W 31–3 vs Browns 96% +4
14 Patriots W 33–7 @ Washington 96% +4
15 Eagles W 31–6 vs Jets 99% +1
16 Jets L 6–31 @ Eagles 1% −1
17 Washington L 7–33 vs Patriots 4% −4
18 Browns L 3–31 @ 49ers 4% −4
19 Bears L 21–24 @ Raiders 13% −13
20 Buccaneers L 24–31 @ Saints 15% −15
21 Chiefs L 13–19 vs Colts 17% −17
22 Bengals L 23–26 vs Cardinals 25% −25
23 Steelers L 23–26 vs Ravens 28% −28
24 Titans L 7–14 vs Bills 30% −30
25 Falcons L 32–53 @ Texans 37% −37
26 Giants L 10–28 vs Vikings 51% −51
27 Rams L 29–30 @ Seahawks 57% −57
28 Jaguars L 27–34 @ Panthers 59% −59
29 Chargers L 13–20 vs Broncos 64% −64
30 Cowboys L 24–34 vs Packers 93% −93