Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Packers at Cowboys, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?
The Packers stole one. They beat the Cowboys 34–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.
The Packers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +93 Packers very lucky · −93 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 1, Cowboys win 9.
- 1 GB 44 DAL 37
- 2 GB 27 DAL 30
- 3 GB 16 DAL 23
- 4 GB 45 DAL 55
- 5 GB 44 DAL 58
- 6 GB 27 DAL 44
- 7 GB 41 DAL 62
- 8 GB 16 DAL 42
- 9 GB 24 DAL 54
- 10 GB 28 DAL 68
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Packers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.11 | better by 0.19 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.13 | better by 0.06 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.16 | worse by 0.09 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.08 | worse by 0.22 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 7% of them, Cowboys 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 63.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- B. Maher, 54 yds missed · 67% expected
- B. Maher, 36 yds made · 92% expected
- M. Crosby, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- B. Maher, 33 yds missed · 95% expected
Penalties: Packers 8 for 73 yards, Cowboys 11 for 124 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:52 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:30 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DAL +2.0 pts |
| Q1 8:57 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:14 | Illegal Shift on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:30 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Tavon Austin), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:52 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +1% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 6:21 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Robert Quinn), 15 yards | +1% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 14:22 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +1% GB +1.2 pts |
| Q3 9:43 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 5 yards | 0% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:16 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 39 yards | 0% GB +2.6 pts |
| Q3 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | 0% DAL +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys, 15 yards | 0% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:05 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:03 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 3 yards, wiping out the play | +2% DAL +3.6 pts |
| Q4 12:32 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys, 5 yards | +1% GB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 8:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 15 yards | +1% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q4 2:45 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yards | +3% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q4 1:44 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB 0.0 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:52 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% DAL | DAL: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 13:30 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% DAL | DAL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 6:09 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% GB | DAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:08 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% GB | DAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:23 | M. Crosby made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him | +3% DAL | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:45 | B. Maher missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +3% GB | DAL: End of half |
| 7 | Q4 14:03 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 | +2% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:45 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 72 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 | +3% DAL | DAL: Missed field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
- Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Antwaun Woods (DAL NT), out · 0.2 pts
- Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Jason Spriggs (GB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jamaal Williams (GB RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 75% · Cowboys 25%
- Final margin
- Packers by 10
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 7% · Cowboys 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · 
Packers · 
Cowboys
More from Week 5 2019
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals ARI 26–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- Falcons at Texans HOU 53–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 26–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Bills at Titans BUF 14–7 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bears vs Raiders OAK 24–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Panthers CAR 34–27 · replay 41% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–10 · replay 49% for the winner
- Patriots at Washington NE 33–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jets at Eagles PHI 31–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 31–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 20–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs IND 19–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at 49ers SF 31–3 · replay 96% for the winner