luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Washington, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat Washington 33–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 87% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:24 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 14 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

New England Patriots 33
Washington Redskins 7

October 6, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Patriots −15.5

Luck index +4 Patriots about even · −4 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 10, Washington win 0.

  1. 1 NE 54 WAS 12
  2. 2 NE 46 WAS 12
  3. 3 NE 36 WAS 7
  4. 4 NE 33 WAS 7
  5. 5 NE 41 WAS 20
  6. 6 NE 34 WAS 17
  7. 7 NE 38 WAS 24
  8. 8 NE 30 WAS 20
  9. 9 NE 21 WAS 13
  10. 10 NE 20 WAS 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 96% of them, Washington 4%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+76.3%
Patriots by 9–1614.0%
Patriots by 1–85.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Washington by 1–82.7%
Washington by 9–160.7%
Washington by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 26, without the luck Patriots by 22.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Nugent, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Nugent, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 7 for 55 yards, Washington 6 for 72 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:49 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Ryan Izzo), 10 yards +3% WAS +1.3 pts
Q1 3:12 False Start on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 11:37 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 40 yards +13% NE +3.0 pts
Q2 6:34 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 4:39 False Start on Washington (Terry McLaurin), 2 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.1 pts
Q2 3:51 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NE +1.6 pts
Q2 3:27 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Brandon Bolden), 10 yards +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 1:22 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.0 pts
Q3 9:03 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington, 10 yards +2% NE +0.8 pts
Q3 1:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Joejuan Williams), 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 4:20 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.5 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:35 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +13% WAS NE: Field goal
2 Q2 14:16 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% NE WAS: Punt
3 Q2 11:37 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 40 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 286 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +13% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 6:34 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% WAS WAS: Turnover
5 Q2 6:18 Washington fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NE WAS: Punt
6 Q2 5:24 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +14% WAS NE: Punt
7 Q2 3:51 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NE NE: Punt
8 Q3 13:45 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Case Keenum (WAS QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 2.3 pts
  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Chung (NE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Washington 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 26
Luck in points
3.2 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 96% · Washington 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Patriots · Washington

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