luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Bengals, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Bengals 26–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): Z. Gonzalez made 31-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
Cincinnati Bengals 23

October 6, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +25 Cardinals about even · −25 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 ARI 45 CIN 17
  2. 2 ARI 33 CIN 12
  3. 3 ARI 34 CIN 17
  4. 4 ARI 30 CIN 17
  5. 5 ARI 17 CIN 7
  6. 6 ARI 20 CIN 13
  7. 7 ARI 20 CIN 16
  8. 8 ARI 33 CIN 31
  9. 9 ARI 23 CIN 26
  10. 10 ARI 9 CIN 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 75% of them, Bengals 25%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+24.3%
Cardinals by 9–1621.7%
Cardinals by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation3.5%
Bengals by 1–814.8%
Bengals by 9–166.3%
Bengals by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Cardinals by 3, without the luck Cardinals by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds missed · 90% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 12 for 96 yards, Bengals 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:53 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q1 7:14 Face Mask on the Bengals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 15 yards +5% ARI +1.8 pts
Q1 5:33 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q1 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:44 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Geno Atkins), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.4 pts
Q2 5:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Deionte Thompson), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.8 pts
Q2 3:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CIN +1.8 pts
Q2 0:14 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Geno Atkins), 2 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 13:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals, 5 yards +1% CIN +0.3 pts
Q3 9:52 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 4:55 False Start on the Cardinals (Rodney Gunter), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +1.1 pts
Q3 3:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Deionte Thompson), 6 yards +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 3:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% ARI +2.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 13:25 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Bengals (Andrew Brown), 8 yards +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 12:16 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +1.6 pts
Q4 10:35 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 9:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 4:08 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:46 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:00 Z. Gonzalez missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +7% CIN ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 7:55 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q2 3:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q3 14:18 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q3 3:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
7 Q3 1:05 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 Z. Gonzalez made 31-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +16% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 92% · Bengals 8%

Final margin
Cardinals by 3
Luck in points
6.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 75% · Bengals 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Cardinals · Bengals

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