luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Giants, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 28–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
New York Giants 10

October 6, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −5.5

Luck index +51 Vikings lucky · −51 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 29 NYG 7
  2. 2 MIN 30 NYG 17
  3. 3 MIN 41 NYG 34
  4. 4 MIN 18 NYG 14
  5. 5 MIN 17 NYG 15
  6. 6 MIN 10 NYG 12
  7. 7 MIN 27 NYG 32
  8. 8 MIN 27 NYG 35
  9. 9 MIN 7 NYG 20
  10. 10 MIN 17 NYG 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 49% of them, Giants 51%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+9.7%
Vikings by 9–1613.7%
Vikings by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.8%
Giants by 1–823.0%
Giants by 9–1614.3%
Giants by 17+9.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 18, without the luck Vikings by 14.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Bailey, 48 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Bailey, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Rosas, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Bailey, 45 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 12 for 112 yards, Giants 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:19 Illegal Contact on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +2.5 pts
Q1 1:27 False Start on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 10:55 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIN +2.1 pts
Q2 9:41 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +2.4 pts
Q2 5:13 False Start on the Vikings (Kyle Rudolph), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 4:04 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 13:34 Horse Collar Tackle on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 15 yards +3% NYG +1.8 pts
Q3 9:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Linval Joseph), 5 yards +9% NYG +2.9 pts
Q3 8:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 6:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 15 yards +3% MIN +1.8 pts
Q3 6:20 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 4:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +1.1 pts
Q3 3:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Trae Waynes), 37 yards +4% NYG +2.5 pts
Q3 1:45 Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 5 yards 0% NYG +0.2 pts
Q4 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% MIN +2.1 pts
Q4 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Evan Engram), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIN +2.2 pts
Q4 5:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% NYG +1.3 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:43 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 7:19 Illegal Contact on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:56 D. Bailey made 48-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q2 3:41 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
6 Q2 2:22 The Vikings fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG MIN: Field goal
7 Q3 9:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Linval Joseph), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 192 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q3 0:15 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% MIN NYG: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alec Ogletree (NYG LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 97% · Giants 3%

Final margin
Vikings by 18
Luck in points
3.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 49% · Giants 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Vikings · Giants

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