luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Steelers, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Steelers 26–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 51 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:41 left): Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 29 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final (OT)

Baltimore Ravens 26
Pittsburgh Steelers 23

October 6, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Ravens −3.5

Luck index +28 Ravens lucky · −28 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Steelers win 3.

  1. 1 BAL 43 PIT 14
  2. 2 BAL 40 PIT 20
  3. 3 BAL 35 PIT 20
  4. 4 BAL 22 PIT 10
  5. 5 BAL 27 PIT 20
  6. 6 BAL 25 PIT 20
  7. 7 BAL 23 PIT 21
  8. 8 BAL 27 PIT 30
  9. 9 BAL 12 PIT 20
  10. 10 BAL 26 PIT 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 72% of them, Steelers 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+26.7%
Ravens by 9–1619.0%
Ravens by 1–823.7%
Level after regulation4.0%
Steelers by 1–813.8%
Steelers by 9–168.1%
Steelers by 17+4.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck Ravens by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 11 for 92 yards, Steelers 11 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:41 False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q1 9:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.5 pts
Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 7:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +2.4 pts
Q1 6:46 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Barron), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 5:45 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Stephon Tuitt), 2 yards +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 11:21 False Start on the Steelers (James Washington), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 6:42 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 3:00 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Maurice Canady), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 1:45 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 0:12 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% PIT +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Vince Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 10:50 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% PIT +3.2 pts
Q3 9:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.2 pts
Q3 7:39 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Earl Thomas), 15 yards +6% PIT +1.9 pts
Q3 6:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Carr), 7 yards +3% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 12:59 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Nick Boyle), 10 yards +6% PIT +1.2 pts
Q4 10:54 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +6% BAL +1.3 pts
Q4 9:41 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +29% PIT +4.5 pts
Q4 7:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards +5% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 5:24 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +5% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 2:30 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers, 15 yards +7% BAL +1.3 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:50 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% PIT BAL: Punt
2 Q3 10:50 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:51 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:41 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +29% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q4 2:41 C. Boswell made 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +10% PIT PIT: End of game
6 Q4 0:14 J. Tucker made 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +11% BAL BAL: Punt
7 QOT 7:37 The Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% BAL –
8 QOT 5:31 J. Tucker made 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +18% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 82% · Steelers 18%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
5.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 72% · Steelers 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Ravens · Steelers

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