luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Panthers, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Jaguars 34–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:43 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 42 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Carolina Panthers 34

October 6, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −3

Luck index +59 Panthers lucky · −59 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 JAX 42 CAR 14
  2. 2 JAX 40 CAR 20
  3. 3 JAX 34 CAR 20
  4. 4 JAX 22 CAR 13
  5. 5 JAX 15 CAR 10
  6. 6 JAX 29 CAR 27
  7. 7 JAX 37 CAR 40
  8. 8 JAX 13 CAR 20
  9. 9 JAX 20 CAR 34
  10. 10 JAX 23 CAR 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 59% of them, Panthers 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+18.9%
Jaguars by 9–1615.9%
Jaguars by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Panthers by 1–817.6%
Panthers by 9–1612.8%
Panthers by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Panthers by 7, without the luck Panthers by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 56 yds blocked · 64% expected
  • J. Lambo, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Lambo, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 9 for 84 yards, Panthers 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:24 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yards +2% CAR +1.0 pts
Q1 12:43 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 5 yards +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 6:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 5:20 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars (Leon Jacobs), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q1 3:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 2:07 False Start on the Panthers (Curtis Samuel), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 12:47 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +4% JAX +2.4 pts
Q2 10:51 Face Mask on the Jaguars (D.J. Alexander), 15 yards +2% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 6:13 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.5 pts
Q2 6:02 False Start on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (DJ Chark), 10 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 9:07 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Yannick Ngakoue), 15 yards +6% CAR +1.7 pts
Q3 5:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% CAR +1.9 pts
Q3 4:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 4 yards +3% CAR +0.6 pts
Q4 2:33 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yards +4% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 0:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% JAX +3.6 pts
Q4 0:02 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% JAX +0.4 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +42% CAR JAX: Punt
2 Q2 6:13 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 210 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:45 The Panthers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
4 Q2 3:05 J. Slye had a 56-yard field goal blockedKicks · 64% expected for him, 6 of 7 from 45+ before +12% JAX CAR: Punt
5 Q3 5:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 11:59 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% JAX CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:57 J. Lambo made 38-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +10% CAR JAX: Turnover
8 Q4 0:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% JAX JAX: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trai Turner (CAR G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Ramsey (JAX CB), out · 1.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 10% · Panthers 90%

Final margin
Panthers by 7
Luck in points
4.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 59% · Panthers 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Jaguars · Panthers

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