Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Colts at Chiefs, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Chiefs 19–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Chiefs: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:43 left): the Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 23 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 19 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Colts about even · −17 Chiefs
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 8, Chiefs win 2.
- 1 IND 42 KC 13
- 2 IND 42 KC 21
- 3 IND 37 KC 19
- 4 IND 30 KC 17
- 5 IND 41 KC 31
- 6 IND 20 KC 13
- 7 IND 24 KC 20
- 8 IND 19 KC 17
- 9 IND 26 KC 29
- 10 IND 20 KC 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chiefs
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
58 points apart for the Chiefs: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.16 | worse by 0.07 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.14 | better by 0.18 |
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.30 | worse by 0.34 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.15 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 83% of them, Chiefs 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 34.9% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 5.0% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Vinatieri, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- A. Vinatieri, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- A. Vinatieri, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- A. Vinatieri, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- H. Butker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Colts 7 for 50 yards, Chiefs 11 for 125 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:39 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards | +3% IND +1.2 pts |
| Q1 9:27 | False Start on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:30 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 2 yards | +1% IND +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:18 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (T.Y. Hilton), 10 yards | +2% KC +1.0 pts |
| Q2 12:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 53 yards | +12% IND +3.8 pts |
| Q2 8:13 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 5 yards | 0% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:14 | Illegal Contact on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards | +2% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 5 yards | +4% IND +0.1 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% KC +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:54 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 5 yards | +1% IND +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yards | +6% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IND +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:30 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Chester Rogers), 10 yards | +2% KC +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (T.Y. Hilton), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% KC +2.8 pts |
| Q4 7:40 | Face Mask on the Chiefs (Demarcus Robinson), 15 yards | +3% IND +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:27 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards | +2% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:19 | Defensive Holding on the Colts (Pierre Desir), 5 yards | 0% KC +0.2 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:37 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:19 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +14% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 12:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 53 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 277 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +12% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 14:54 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +8% KC | KC: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 8:43 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +23% IND | KC: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (T.Y. Hilton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 154 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +12% KC | KC: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 11:15 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 5:06 | The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% IND | KC: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyreek Hill (KC WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
- Alex Okafor (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Malik Hooker (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Clayton Geathers (IND SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 65% · Chiefs 35%
- Final margin
- Colts by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 83% · Chiefs 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · 
Colts · 
Chiefs
More from Week 5 2019
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals ARI 26–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- Falcons at Texans HOU 53–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 26–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Bills at Titans BUF 14–7 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bears vs Raiders OAK 24–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Panthers CAR 34–27 · replay 41% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–10 · replay 49% for the winner
- Patriots at Washington NE 33–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jets at Eagles PHI 31–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 31–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 20–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys GB 34–24 · replay 7% for the winner
- Browns at 49ers SF 31–3 · replay 96% for the winner