2019 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2019: game by game

The Rams went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Panthers	W 30–27	91%	+9
Week 2	vs Saints	W 27–9	79%	+21
Week 3	@ Browns	W 20–13	83%	+17
Week 4	vs Buccaneers	L 40–55	64%	−64
Week 5	@ Seahawks	L 29–30	57%	−57
Week 6	vs 49ers	L 7–20	10%	−10
Week 7	@ Falcons	W 37–10	80%	+20
Week 8	vs Bengals	W 24–10	91%	+9
Week 10	@ Steelers	L 12–17	78%	−78
Week 11	vs Bears	W 17–7	80%	+20
Week 12	vs Ravens	L 6–45	3%	−3
Week 13	@ Cardinals	W 34–7	96%	+4
Week 14	vs Seahawks	W 28–12	87%	+13
Week 15	@ Cowboys	L 21–44	8%	−8
Week 16	@ 49ers	L 31–34	43%	−43
Week 17	vs Cardinals	W 31–24	62%	+38

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +9 @ CAR

Wk 2 +21 vs NO

Wk 3 +17 @ CLE

Wk 4 −64 vs TB

Wk 5 −57 @ SEA

Wk 6 −10 vs SF

Wk 7 +20 @ ATL

Wk 8 +9 vs CIN

Wk 10 −78 @ PIT

Wk 11 +20 vs CHI

Wk 12 −3 vs BAL

Wk 13 +4 @ ARI

Wk 14 +13 vs SEA

Wk 15 −8 @ DAL

Wk 16 −43 @ SF

Wk 17 +38 vs ARI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.10	−7.2
Rest	+0.02	+0.8
Fumble bounces	−0.06	−1.6
Injuries	−0.17	−6.5
Judgment calls	−0.51	−21.6
Kicks	−0.67	−8.9