luckadjusted

One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Rams in one-score games

The Rams haven’t played a one-score game yet in 2026; in 2025 they went 4–5, from play worth 6.4 wins in replays. Since 2019: 32–27 in 59 one-score games, 35.1 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Rams win in replays (regular season).

SeasonOne-score recordReplay wins in those gamesClose-game luckOverall record
20260–00.0 of 0 0.01–1
20254–56.4 of 9 −2.412–5
20248–57.0 of 13 +1.010–7
20236–46.3 of 10 −0.310–7
20223–42.5 of 7 +0.55–12
20214–23.7 of 6 +0.312–5
20204–45.0 of 8 −1.010–6
20193–34.1 of 6 −1.19–7

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Los Angeles Rams, every season